Global production of tinplate in 2025 was 18.693 kilotons, and of that China had the biggest production with nearly 8kt, nearly double that of Europe, which produces the second largest amount 3.653kt and four times more than Japan, which is third in global rankings at 1.633kt in 2025.
The figures were announced by Davide Padovani, chief executive at Steelforce Packaging, who presented a steel industry outlook, assessing market dynamics, trends and strategies, at the MPE Metalmorphosis and Competitiveness conference in Berlin, Germany.
Padovani said some experts in China were expecting capacity there to grow to 11kt in two years, from a 2025 capacity of 7.396kt, largely as a result of two new integrated projects coming online in the next few years, with one on China’s mainland and the other in Mongolia.
China’s output had grown at 4% CAGR over the past 25 years, while production in Europe, Japan and North America “shrank”. India is also growing he said.
The biggest importers of tinplate are the US, with 1.452kt or 25% of the world trade, followed by Asia with 1.238kt (21%), and Europe with 1.196kt (20%). But import growth was primarily from Asia in 2025.
“One country produces half of the world’s tinplate steel,” he noted, adding that this fact has driven a complex architecture for steel sourcing and price strategies in the EU. Trade measures in the EU include safeguard measures, which expire on 30 June 2026, anti-dumping and CBAM. A new permanent safeguard regime will come into effect on 1 July, reducing the quota by 47%, but increasing the tariff price by 50%.
This deadline makes 2026 a “turning point year” for the impact of imports to the EU, for which he projected a “strong recovery” for intra-EU supplies
Padovani said the anti-dumping measures had been “very effective”, with duties ranging between 13.1% to 62.3% on various companies in China producing tinplate. For tin-free steel (TFS), duties have been imposed on China and Brazil since 2022.
He said CBAM was a way of valuing European steel, based on the fact that “European steel is made with green technology”. The logic of the CBAM regime was to encourage the purchase of carbon credits if a less-green product is bought, with the effect of driving up prices for tinplate/TFS and aluminium, he said. Tinplate and TFS are estimated to rise by about EUR40-90 per tonne, and EUR100 per tonne for aluminium.
He said: “The question is no longer if, it’s how exposed are you?”
Padovani added that Steelforce Packaging’s En-finity steel – “the only can-to-can steel” – was going into production for availability in 2027.
