The Russian aluminium can market is expected to reach a record 13.5 billion units by 2026, which could meet the needs of domestic customers for cans.
This is down to the existing potential of major local players to expand their production capacities as consumer demand for soft drinks and other beverages remains strong in Russia, and is expected to grow amid the ongoing boom of the country’s wartime economy.
According to a report prepared by Russian consulting agency Mega Research, the demand for aluminium cans will continue to grow during 2025 and 2026, while the Russian economy remains stable, as Western sanctions have not been enough to undermine it.
Most of this demand is likely to be met by the Arnest Group, the current market leader, whose overall capacity may exceed seven billion beverage cans a year after starting up its fourth canmaking plant in the Ulyanovsk region.
Construction of the Ulyanovsk plant, a project that was originally planned by Ball Corporation, began in October 2021 and was commissioned in 2024. The first line was started up in March that year, while the second began, ahead of schedule, in May of that year. By the end of 2024, the plant had produced 800 million cans. Its production capacity is 1.5 billion units.
If demand continues in 2025 and 2026, the company plans to install two more lines, which would increase production capacity to three billion cans per year.
According to market experts, aluminium can production between 2021 and 2023 across Russia increased by 27%, from 7.8 to 9.9 billion units. With the Ulyanovsk plant running at full capacity, production is expected to be significantly higher in 2025-26.
The Arnest Group also owns the Russian division of the brewer Heineken, in addition to its four major canmaking plants, all previously owned by Ball. Most local analysts believe that the company may consider further capacity expansion in addition to the Ulyanovsk plant.
According to the Russian Aluminum Association, in 2021 Ball Corporation supplied about 70% of the Russian market, with an estimated output of 5.6 billion units. The other 30% of the market was provided by the Russian subsidiary of Poland-based Canpack, called Can-Pak Packaging Plant LLC. The plant is located in the Volokolamsk region of Moscow, with a revenue of RUB26.4 billion (USD330 million) in 2023. Net profit that year was RUB4.5bn an increase of 17% compared with 2022. The results for 2024 have not yet been officially published.
Canned beer dominates the drinks market, which according to the Russian Aluminium Association, had a 71% market share in 2021. However, by 2023 it had decreased slightly (to 67%) as other beverage segments grew, such as carbonated soft drinks and kvass (made from fermented rye). In addition, local winemakers and the producers of energy drinks are also demanding cans.
According to the Association and some independent analysts, aluminium cans are currently the fastest-growing segment of beverage containers in Russia. Although sales of glass and PET bottles are gradually declining, figures from 2023 for the beer industry showed the market share of non-metal containers exceeded aluminium cans – 35.4% against 31.4%, respectively.
Expected aluminium can production growth will enable a balance in the Russian can market’s supply and demand, say analysts, as the 2021 deficit of 1 billion units recedes. There is also a possibility that exports will resume, with Belarus among the major markets, as well as other former Soviet states, primarily those located in the Central Asia region, apart from Kazakhstan where a canmaking plant, QuaZalpack, opened last year and where the demand for aluminium cans has significantly increased.
However, the quality code label ‘Honest Sign’ has added further costs to Russian canmakers. The labelling on all canned beverages is added at the manufacturing plant, which according to sources, costs an additional RUB1.5 to RUB2.0 per unit.
