Estimates for the likely movement in tin prices are that it will remain above USD30,000 per tonne, according to analysis from the International Tin Association (ITA).
Tom Langston, ITA senior market intelligence analyst, described the movement in tin prices over the past few years and said that although current prices may ease, it was likely that going into 2026 tin prices would not drop substantially.
Tinplate remains a significant use of tin, accounting for 11% of global demand in 2024, with the most used in the packaging industry.
“2023 was marked by weak demand and stable supply and saw significant market deficit …dragging the tin price to just under USD26,000 per tonne,” he told the London Tinplate Conference this week.
However, “shifting market dynamics” in 2024 helped tin prices rally to USD35,000 per tonne and “this performance was largely spurred by major disruptions in Indonesia and Myanmar”, he said.
Langston said tin was the “best performing base metal in 2024”, up 14%, with a London Metals Exchange (LME) average price of around USD30,000.
Into 2025, he said tin continues to outperform base metals, reaching the highest point in April at USD38,000, which was largely down to a 7.7 magnitude earthquake in Myanmar and miner Alphamin suspending operations in the Democratic Republic of Congo.
US tariffs brought down metals prices after President Trump’s ‘liberation day’ tariffs, but the tin price has strengthened, with a prolonged period at more than USD33,000 per tonne currently.
Langston noted: “The EU’s largest export market for tinplate is the US, accounting for around 50% of all shipments, and roughly around two-thirds of US tinplate imports also come from the EU.”
He assessed tin prices may ease heading into 2026, but said “the influence of speculators and investment funds will remain crucial”. He also recommended keeping note of Indonesian exports, because of the “unpredictable regulatory environment there threatening further disruption”.
He forecast a small market deficit for 2025, “but we see that moving into balance in 2026, as the delayed supply recovery gains momentum”, along with a restart of mining operations in Myanmar.
Longer term, he said, the ITA forecast a “structural shift around 2030 as demand begins to consistently outpace supply”.
However, for 2026, he said the “base case was around USD31,000 per tonne”.
Scott Breen, president of the Can Manufacturers Institute (CMI), said his organisation was working hard to reduce the tariffs on steel and aluminium.
“We import 80% of the tinplate we use to make cans in the United States. We are talking with the administration,” he told the conference.
The knock-on effect on pricing was hurting the consumer and the cost impact “could last a long time if the price increases too much”, as cans will be seen as “expensive” items, he added.
The International Tin Association, which holds the Tinplate Conference every four years, represents global tin producers bringing experts in the value chain together to discuss matters affecting the tin industry.
